Domestic Airline Industry Predicted to Recover by Early Next Year

Access to vaccines and desire to travel will contribute to the rebound. 

The Centers for Disease Control just announced ease on travel restrictions during COVID-19. The news is likely to increase revenue among an industry that lost 60 percent of its customers due to the health crisis.

Consulting firm Oliver Wyman just released its Airline Economic Analysis. The firm made clear one silver lining in the headline: U.S. Domestic Air Travel to Make Full Recovery by Early 2022.”

This isn’t just a good sign for the airline industry, but all sectors of travel and hospitality.

“A year ago, we would have thought that a full domestic recovery in this timeframe for the US was almost impossible,” said Tom Stalnaker, a partner and global aviation practice leader at Oliver Wyman. “But the combination of pent-up demand, economic stimulus, and access to vaccines is making a difference,”

What the experts think

Fully vaccinated travelers have been deemed safe for take-off, according to recent CDC reports. Those who’ve been fully vaccinated no longer need to test for COVID-19 before travel or self-quarantine.

Physical distancing of at least six feet, handwashing, and face coverings are still required. But the confidence of flying within the states is likely enough reason for Americans to register for vaccination as soon as possible.

The Gem Journal just reported Americans are itching to travel. In fact, three out of five already have plans to leave town this summer. According to the CDC’s COVID data tracker, 17 percent of Americans – more than 61 million – have been vaccinated to date.

“The overall comeback of travel will depend on how fast nations get their populations vaccinated and standardize their health passport travel protocols and testing regulations,” Stalnaker said. “But make no mistake, the demand to travel is here and we don’t see it going away anytime soon.”